General Probability Calculator
Link Missing: Book Chapter on Calculating Probability
Video: Calculating the Probability of Simple Events
Link Missing: Exit Poll Within Precinct Disparity Calculator (a primary Election Integrity technique for election veracity verification)
Theory about the likelihood of serious industrial accident: Normal Accident Theory
Specific Odds
1 : 280,000 of being struck by lightning in a year (as 4/18/04) National Lightning Safety Institute
1 : 40 that space rock 2004 MN4 has of striking Earth on April 13, 2029 (space.com report on 27 December 2004). 2004 MN4 is about a quarter mile (400 meters) wide, larger than the asteroid that carved Meteor Crater in Arizona and much bigger than one that exploded in the air above Siberia in 1908, flattening thousands of square miles of forest.
1 : 3,250 that a High School Senior Men's Basketball player will be eventually drafted by an NBA team [1]
1 : 18,000,000 winning a typical single state lottery[2]
1 : 120,000,000 winning a large multiple-state lottery lottery[3]
Notes:
- 1] http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/connect/public/NCAA/Issues/Recruiting/Probability+of+Going+Pro 09-297-2011
- 2] http://www.savingadvice.com/forums/other/5559-probability-winning-lottery-dont-waste-your-money.html 03-29-2005
- 3] http://www.savingadvice.com/forums/other/5559-probability-winning-lottery-dont-waste-your-money.html 03-29-2005